We Are Already in a New Cold War…

One of the topics I am exploring in my (soon to be published) series of Cold War articles is the question “Are we already in a New Cold War?” That article was drafted between May – September 2020, but recent news about the expansion of Chinese ICBM silos has pushed the topic on.


“Castle Romeo” atmospheric nuclear test – March 1954
The Official CTBTO Photostream
– public domain from flickr.com https://www.flickr.com/photos/ctbto/4926596880

I believe it is now clear that (from a historian’s perspective) we are already in a New Cold War. More realistically, I believe that the (first) Cold War never ended, it just changed its clothes and membership.

Historians do not agree on exactly when the (first) Cold War started, its earliest moments of suspicions, paranoia and plotting happened in secret. Generally speaking we could say that World War 2 amplified differences between Russia and “the West”, and the development of nuclear weapons presented an existential crisis that Stalin could not ignore… and so a nuclear standoff began which came to threaten the extinction of almost all life on Earth.

A Cold War soldier said that “your soul grows cold because you are confronted with something you don’t like doing”.

So how did the leaders of nuclear-armed states come to accept the principle of killing entire cities with a single bomb?

Nuclear weapons take the history of humans killing each other to an unprecedented level. The immediate direct effects of a single weapon can now kill hundreds of thousands of people. The delayed (immediate) effects of fallout and radiation perhaps hundreds of thousands more – who in their right mind could ever, under any circumstances, find it acceptable to do that?

History records that the Cold War ended on 26th December 1991 with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. I believe this Christmas 1991 finish to the Cold War is a useful myth for the leaders of Western nuclear-armed states. It makes the general population feel safe, like they’ve won, and can therefore keep their attention turned to other things.

The collapse of the Soviet Union did not lead to nuclear weapons being withdrawn. Whilst the former Soviet states have now returned all of their nuclear weapons to Russia for deactivation and dismantling 1, Russia is estimated to maintain a stockpile of around 4,500 nuclear warheads (‘strategic’ and ‘tactical’), with 1,600 strategic warheads deployed 2. And so, of course, the USA feels it has to maintain similar numbers of warheads in order to feel ‘safe’.

US B52 bomber dropping an air-launched cruise missile
public domain image from flickr.com | https://www.flickr.com/photos/my_public_domain_photos/35074293626

The post-WW2 elite club-of-one has since expanded to at least nine nuclear-armed states now possessing around 13,080 nuclear weapons between them 3. 3,825 of these are deployed to operational forces, with some 2,000 estimated to be kept on high alert by the United States and Russia – high alert ready to go.

Nuclear tensions have remained high as all sides of a global ideological conflict continue to develop new ‘weapons systems’ – ie new and ever more innovative ways to kill hundreds of thousands of people at a stroke.

In their latest developments, Russia is now fielding hypersonic glide vehicles (‘Avangard’) that can be launched as MIRV’d payloads from their ICBMs, carrying nuclear warheads with such speed and manoeuvrability that render them essentially invulnerable to anti-missile systems – clearly a first strike weapon. They have also developed an automated torpedo (‘Poseidon’) capable of carrying a 2-megaton warhead (some reports have quoted up to 100-megatons), able to sink aircraft carriers or unleash irradiated tidal waves on coastal areas. Buoyed up by the growth of its offensive strategic weapons, Russia is increasingly threatening its neighbours, invading Crimea, flying bombers towards NATO coastlines, engaging in asymmetric cyber-attacks, expanding its submarine force and even sailing a submarine up the English Channel 4.

The threat is not confined to Russia. Supported by its massive (sometimes very polluting) economic growth, China is also asserting itself on the world. From mock aerial attacks on Taiwan, to the building of strategic islands and airstrips on the Spratley Islands, to the latest reports of their building 100 new ICBM silos 5, China has clearly also decided that it needs the power to threaten omnicide in order to achieve its political goals.

In the meantime, the USA and Russia pull out of arms control treaties and world safety seems to ebb further away with each passing day.

Why omnicide?

Robert Oppenheimer – 16th July 1945

The immediate direct and delayed effects of nuclear explosions are by themselves psychopathically brutal beyond imagination. But those effects become amplified if more than a few of those weapons are used, when the soot from burning petrochemicals and cities threatens to bring on a nuclear winter that could kill billions of people. Research moved on after Sagan’s keynote book on nuclear winter was published in 1990, but ‘A Path Where No Man Thought’ remains a vibrant explanation of how nuclear war could end most life on Earth. Sagan and Turco show how the use of 3,000 – 6,000 warheads on either side (USA, Russia) could trigger a Type III nuclear winter, causing average land temperature to drop by around 10℃, leading to widespread famine in the Northern Hemisphere (amongst other things) and placing 1-2 billion people at risk of starvation globally.

It’s not an idle speculation that the US and Russia could plan to use so many nuclear weapons in a ‘central exchange’ – the US war plan from the 1960’s (SIOP) included a ‘grand tour’ bombing run of every city in Russia andChina (the latter being ‘just in case’ targets). The Grand Tour idea could be seductive – once you’ve decided that in order to win you can’t leave any of your enemy’s infrastructure standing, military or civilian, it becomes easy to just keep adding ‘targets’ (cities, units of hundreds of thousands of people) to the plan. But the release of soot into the atmosphere from so many burning cities could trigger a devastating nuclear winter, killing billions, and perhaps permanently destroying most of the global ecosystem.

And all for what?

Don’t you know there’s a war on?

The New Cold War is on. It’s the same as the old Cold War, but under a new name with some new players.

It is time that the leaders of nuclear-armed states learned to play a new game.
—-

References

1.  “What Happened to the Soviet Superpower’s Nuclear Arsenal? Clues for the Nuclear Security Summit” – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs – https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/what-happened-soviet-superpowers-nuclear-arsenal-clues-nuclear-security-summit

2.  “Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does Russia have in 2021?” – Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – https://thebulletin.org/premium/2021-03/nuclear-notebook-russian-nuclear-weapons-2021/

3.  “Global nuclear arsenals grow as states continue to modernize–New SIPRI Yearbook out now” – Stockholm International Peace Research Institute – https://sipri.org/media/press-release/2021/global-nuclear-arsenals-grow-states-continue-modernize-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now

4.  “Royal Navy warship HMS Mersey stalks Russian attack submarine through British waters as it travels from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean” – Daily Mail – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9304443/Royal-Navy-warship-HMS-Mersey-stalks-Russian-attack-submarine-British-waters.html

5.  “Satellite images show China is building more than 100 ‘nuclear missile silos’ in the desert” – Daily Mail – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9748801/Satellite-images-China-building-100-nuclear-missile-silos-desert.html

Lots of Progress with my Cold War / New Cold War stories…

Trinity explosion – public domain from Wikipedia [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_%28nuclear_test%29 ]

… it has been nearly a year since I revealed that I was now writing a series of fictional stories and articles with a Cold War theme…

– although I have been quiet, a lot has been happening behind the scenes!

This is the current status of my writing projects:

The ‘Lissa Blackwood’ novels were paused so I could create other stories and materials around the books’ Cold War themes:

Book 1 – “Evil Eye” has been completed to third-draft stage.
Book 2 – currently unnamed – first draft in progress.
Book 3 – currently unnamed – plotted but otherwise not started.

‘Special Investigations Group’ (SIG) short stories: 4 stories based in the same setting as the ‘Lissa Blackwood’ novels have been completed:

* Craig Ballard on a covert mission in Crimea.
* Craig Ballard returns to Crimea.
* Craig Ballard and Lissa Blackwood on covert missions in the Ukraine Occupied Territory, Estonia and Latvia.
* Craig Ballard and Lissa Blackwood on a covert mission in Iceland

“Nuclear Explosion, Chicago [1902×1080] – art0on” – by tofoli.douglas on flick.com – public domain

The first 3 of 6 short stories set within or around New Cold War nuclear bunkers have been drafted:

* Engineer Jon Barclay discovers a chemical weapon sabotage attempt.

* Hackers cause the release of an Orbital Nuclear Weapon – Engineer Jon Barclay helps to restore control of a UK Orbital Weapons Platform.

* Dr Jane Brady realises a psychotropic agent has been released in the bunker.

* The Start of War – Engineer Jon Barclay struggles to keep the bunker operational – news reaches them that a nearby civil defence bunker is in deadly trouble.

* Two Days after the Attack – a survivor in the bunker puts everyone inside at risk.

* Ten weeks after the Attack – trying to rescue survivors in the civil defence bunker.

A series of circa 33 non-fiction articles about the Cold War. With the exception of the curated links to videos relevant to each topic, first draft articles have been written for topics 1-4. I am currently writing articles for topic 5.

The final list of articles might still change a bit, but these are the current titles:

Topic 1: Assess & Rank Threats: Main Risks during the Cold War

  1. WWII: Context for the Cold War that followed.
  2. Weaponry: Nukes, Chemical, Biological, Conventional.
  3. Photo Gallery: UK Combat Aircraft.
  4. Paranoia.
  5. MAD and the Doomsday Machine.
  6. Nuclear Winter and Omnicide.
  7. The British Military-Industrial Complex.
  8. Potential Errors and Misunderstandings.
  9. Proxy Wars.
  10. Espionage.
  11. Modern Technology and Computing.
  12. Curated links to videos relevant to this topic.
  13. Timeline and Examples.

Topic 2: Assess & Rank Threats: Current Perceived Risks – post Cold War

  1. Current Technological, Ideological and Geo-Political Threats.
  2. Are We Already in an New Cold War?
  3. Curated links to videos relevant to this topic.

Topic 3: Public Perception of Risks during the Cold War

  1. The Civil Defence ‘Lie’.
  2. How Bunkers and Civil Defence Propoganda propagated the Lie of Survivability.
  3. Comparison of approaches to the provision of political and military nuclear bunkers in the United Kingdom, United States and Western Europe.
  4. Fallout Shelters: Types, Equipment, Survivability.
  5. Curated links to videos relevant to this topic.

Topic 4: Understand Threats: Asymetric Warfare Risks in the 21st Century

  1. “Little Green Men” – How and why Russia used unbadged troops to invade Crimea in 2014.
  2. Proxy Wars taking place in the 21st Century involving Turkey, Russia, China and/or Iran.
  3. The role of terrorism in proxy wars and the risk of asymmetric warfare in the 21st Century.
  4. The state and nature of 21st Century politics, especially compared to politics at the height of the Cold War (United States, United Kingdom & Russia).
  5. Curated links to videos relevant to this topic.

Topic 5: Understand Threats: Modern Warfare Risks

  1. Land risks.
  2. Air risks.
  3. Sea risks.
  4. Space risks.
  5. Over-reliance on Technology, AI and Automation.
  6. Did WW2 De-sensitise Global Society to the Horror of War and Immorality of Killing Civilians?
  7. Curated links to videos relevant to this topic.

A lot of progress, and a lot of fun creating these stories and articles – the more I write to Cold War themes, the more I find to write about!

Astronomers Thrill at Giant Comet Flying into Our Solar System – Scientific American

The internet is bubbling with news stories about comet C/2014 UN271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein). Current size estimates are that the comet is about 100-370 km across – much bigger than the previous size winner, Hale-Bopp in 1997 at 60km. There are big uncertainties at the moment, with C/2014 UN271 some 20 AU away. Those uncertainties will narrow, and we’ve plenty of time to do that it won’t reach perihelion until 2031.

Unfortunately its closest approach will be around 11 AU, with a currently estimated visual magnitude of about 14-15… so not a naked eye object and likely hard to see except for advanced amateurs.

Even so, it is so unusual to have an object of this size enter the outer solar system, it will be worth tracking this story over the next decade… who knows what C/2014 UN271 will tell us about the frigid wastes of the Oort cloud?

See more at: Astronomers Thrill at Giant Comet Flying into Our Solar System – Scientific American

Book review: “A Treachery of Spies” – Manda Scott

Over forty years many of the books I have enjoyed were ‘very good’, some ‘excellent’, and just one was ‘nearly perfect’ (Les Miserables by Victor Hugo – you might say that ‘he went on a bit’).

Now I’m excited to share what I consider to be a PERFECT story – Manda Scott’s 2018 ‘A Treachery of Spies’.

The book was recommended to me and it is a pleasure to share that gift with other readers here.

The judgment of perfection is relative, of course. I would categorise this story as an action-thriller with espionage overtones. If that sounds like the kind of story you enjoy I think you will love it.

The story blends two timelines in an inter-connected plot that spans from British-French resistance and espionage in WW2 occupied France, to the modern-day execution of Sophie Destivelle, “… a very old, very elegant lady spy.” Destivelle was a British double-agent during the war. The story turns on her mission to eventually kill Max Krammer, the German officer who turned her into a traitor.

Early in the story, her fear-hate of Krammer is laid bare and we know that she is desperate to kill him. The British need her to get close to Krammer and act as their agent until they give her permission to do that – becoming a British double agent will both wipe the slate clean from her treachery and give her the closure that she needs with Krammer… and so she returns to France.

Scott surrounds Destivelle with an authentic cast of supporting characters and an exciting WW2 storyline. This is one of the story’s greatest strengths – it feels real, like she is giving us true insights into how the Resistance operated in France. Sub-plots around her British handler’s life, espionage and cryptography, deaths in the Blitz, all add colour to a well-drawn tale.

The modern-day murder mystery tracks how Detective Picaut, a French police officer, follows the breadcrumbs from Destivelle’s murder in a car park, through stories of the wartime Resistance, towards links with the CIA and NSA, and a final satisfying showdown that pulls all the strands together.

The other thing which struck me was the technical execution of the writing – it is flawless. I did not notice any typos. The pacing and structure of both action and dialogue were excellent. Descriptions were never intrusive and it was always clear who was involved. It takes years of effort to learn to write in this gold standard style, and Scott has clearly learnt her stuff.

Finally, I must add that the packaging of this story, in the copy I read, was also perfect. The cover design was excellent, the feel of the back cover made the book a pleasure to hold while reading, and the blurb was spot on.

So… what are you waiting for?

‘Sinister yet pathetic’: how the UK was primed for nuclear war | Books | The Guardian

I’m very interested in how propaganda was (and still is) used to influence the general population to accept nuclear weapons, even though it quickly became clear that nuclear war was not survivable in the hydrogen-bomb era.

Taras Young’s “Nuclear War in the UK” is on my reading list for 2021. In the meantime, this short article in The Guardian was an interesting introduction to the topic.

Source: ‘Sinister yet pathetic’: how the UK was primed for nuclear war | Books | The Guardian

Book review: “The Truth Machine” – James L. Halperin

I found James L. Halperin’s 1996 novel “The Truth Machine” a curiously dull-yet-interesting read… an unusual combination.

The cover looked exciting and the tagline of “In the Year 2004 The Truth Will Be Told” promised ‘excitement, adventure and really wild things’… to misquote Douglas Adams.

Unfortunately Halperin chose to tell the story from the rather distant, largely third-person perspective of an AI system called ‘Intel 22g CP-TLMos’.

Although it might have seemed like an exciting idea in 1996 that an AI could be working alongside humans in a very natural way, and in this case as a kind of computerised journalist, by 2020 it felt emotionally bland. There is a great story contained within this book that could have been told from the perspective of any of the human characters – we would then have felt emotionally engaged with the tale instead of observing it from afar.

With all of that said as a massive warning that chunks of the book were like chewing my way through a stack of stale crackers, despite wanting to abandon it several times, there was something in it that made me want to see how it finished.

Spoiler zone: here comes the plot – as a result of his brother being murdered, an intellectually gifted yet socially deficient man called Randall Armstrong (autistic perhaps) decides to build a machine that will report whether people are telling the truth with 100% accuracy. Halperin follows the thread of how such a machine would affect human society quite deeply – just imagine if business people, politicians, everybody, had to be completely honest all of the time… everything would change.

The task of the building the Truth Machine is huge and Armstrong gets there except for a small 2% glitch that he eventually only covers by using plagiarised computer code from a competitor. He then has to build a loophole into his Truth Machine so that he can pass tests to say he has never broken the law in the future. Of course, other Truth Machines are eventually built that Armstrong can’t fool, and in the end he has to be held accountable for his crimes, which by then also include murder and perjury – he’s facing the death penalty at that point… what will happen? We actually come to quite like Armstrong, in a distant sort of way, but the sense of jeopardy from his trial at the end of the book remains dull.

Overall I found the Truth Machine interesting as an idea, but the execution of the story severely diminished the overall enjoyment of reading it. Scientists today are still trying to use remote-sensing to detect aberrant behaviours, and this book does give some insight into how the world might change if they ever succeed.

Nuclear weapons treaty: Campaigners hail new era for nuclear disarmament – BBC news report…

Honduras has just ratified the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, meaning that the minimum number required for it to come into force has been reached.

There are currently 193 member states of the United Nations – 122 (63%) of them have approved the accord on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Now 50 states (26% of UN membership) agree that they will “… never under any circumstances develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.

This a great step towards ridding the world of these most terrible weapons of mass destruction. A most significant next step would be to see a real move towards to reducing stockpiles and nuclear disarmament by the 5 main nuclear powers: United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom and France. – these 5 states are essentially holding world safety up to a nuclear ransom… isn’t it time that things changed?

News article: Nuclear weapons treaty: Campaigners hail new era for nuclear disarmament

image: “Nuclear Explosion Fantasy” by Maxwell Hamilton on flickr.com
Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0)

NASA’s OSIRIS-REx Seeks to Grab a Piece of Asteroid Bennu – Scientific American

NASA is hopefully going to grab up to 2kg of rick samples from asteroid Bennu and give us a fantastic insight into early planetesimal formation in the solar system…

The spacecraft’s first attempt to gather material from the space rock’s surface could become the largest nonlunar sample return in history

Source: NASA’s OSIRIS-REx Seeks to Grab a Piece of Asteroid Bennu – Scientific American