CC BY-SA-4.0 : by Steffen Prößdorf via Wikipedia,
In a most eloquent speech at the Munich Security Conference, the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, openly said many truths about the way that the world has changed since the start of Donald Trump’s second term of office. Excerpts from his speech have been widely reported, but this link is the only one I could find to a complete transcript.
I’m sure that representatives from the United States would have found much of his message difficult to listen to.
For me, the summary takeaways are that:
1) The global world order has changed, and we can no longer rely on rights and rules to moderate international behaviour. It has been replaced by Big Power politics, in a time when the USA has lost its claim to global leadership and is directly competing with other Big Powers like China.
2) Under Big Power politics, smaller nations will be eaten as lunch by the big players unless they stand together.
3) Europe has the economic capability to be at least 10 times stronger than it is now. With trust in the USA lost, Germany and its EU partners are now on an irrevocable path to strengthening, economically, militarily and politically.
4) The EU recognises its own mutual defence pact under Article 42, and is therefore dubious that the USA will respect that provision of the NATO alliance. European nations are strengthening their own military forces, including the possibility of leveraging the French nuclear deterrent.
5) Alliance with the USA is no longer enough to ensure stability and security, and the EU is now building strong alliances around the globe.
So… the USA is an unreliable ally…
… and Europe is rearming, strengthening and diversifying away from the USA.
To me, these are sensible actions in light of the Big Power politics that are now being played, and it is reassuring to see national leaders being so clear-eyed about it.
The next best change would be for the EU to facilitate a respectful return of the UK, so we can stand as a united Europe against the dystopian regimes that are growing around us.
Here are some of Friedrich Merz comments, in his own words:
On the Collapse of International Order:
“… the international order based on rights and rules is currently being destroyed… This order, as flawed as it has been even in its heyday, no longer exists.”
“… we’ve entered an era that, once again, is marked by power and big power politics very openly.”
“… The United States’ claim to leadership has been challenged and possibly lost.”
On The New Rules of Big Power Politics:
“… big power politics turns away from a world in which increasing connectivity translates into the rule of law and peaceful relations between states. Big power politics has its own rules. It is fast, harsh, and often unpredictable.
“It fears own dependencies, but uses dependencies of others, and, if necessary, even exploits them. At the heart of this stands a battle for spheres of influence, dependencies, and deference. Natural resources, technologies, and supply chains are becoming bargaining tools in the zero-sum game of the major powers. This is a dangerous game, at first for the small players, but later on probably also for the big players. And our friends in the United States are adapting to this at a fast pace.”
On Closing the Gap Between Ambition and Capability:
“… Russia’s GDP is currently about 2 trillion euros. That of the European Union is almost 10 times as high. But still, Europe is not 10 times as strong as Russia today. Our military, political, and technological potential is huge. But we haven’t tapped it to the necessary extent for a very long time.”
On The Need for Mental Transformation:
“… So the most important thing is to turn the switch in our minds now. We have understood that in the era of big powers, our freedom is no longer a given. It is at stake. We will need to show firmness and determination to assert this freedom.”
On the First Pillar: Military and Economic Strengthening:
“… Our highest priority for us is to strengthen Europe within NATO.”
“… We have launched big conventional procurement projects in the field of air defence, deep precision strikes, and satellite technology. We are reviving our defence industry. New factories are opening. New jobs are being created. New technologies are emerging.”
“… We are strengthening NATO’s eastern flank.”
“… We will make the Bundeswehr the strongest conventional army in Europe as soon as we can, an army that stands firm when it has to.”
“… We are forging resilient supply chains and reducing unilateral dependencies on raw materials, key technologies and key products.”
On the Second Pillar: Strengthening Europe:
“… Europe needs to become a real player in global politics with its own security policy strategy.”
“… Article 42 of the Treaty on European Union, we commit ourselves to provide mutual assistance in case of an armed attack in Europe.”
“… I have started first talks with the French President Emmanuel Macron about European nuclear deterrence.”
On Forging a New Transatlantic Partnership:
“… A divide has opened up between Europe and the United States…”
“… The battle of cultures of MAGA in the US is not ours.”
“… Now, the transatlantic partnership is no longer something we can just take for granted.”
“… Let me paraphrase this for our American friends in English. For three generations, trust amongst allies, partners and friends has made NATO the strongest alliance of all times. Europe knows deeply how precious this is. In the era of great power rivalry, even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone.”
On Europe’s Self-Sustained Pillar:
“… A true ally takes his obligations seriously. No one forced us into this excessive dependency on the United States in which we have found ourselves recently. This dependence was self-inflicted, but we now cast off this state as soon as we can. And we are doing this not by writing off NATO. We are doing it by establishing a strong, self-sustained European pillar within the alliance.”
On Building Global Partnerships:
“… As important as European integration and the transatlantic partnership remain for us, they will no longer be sufficient to preserve our freedom.”
“… So we reach out to new partners with whom we share not all but many objectives. This avoids dependencies and risks, and at the same time, it opens up new opportunities for both sides.”
Lee J. Russell, Author 