Even before Trump assumed office in ’25, it was obvious that his second term as US president was going to be rough for the rest of the democratic world. But I don’t think we expected such an abrupt about-face by the nation respected by most as the so-called ‘leaders of the free world’.
In just two months since Trump’s inauguration on 20th January, the USA has apparently transformed from being a strong partner who could be relied on to respect the norms of international law and help to ensure world peace through the projection of both soft and hard power, to becoming a hard-right isolationist state which apparently has more respect for Putin’s gangster Russia than the alliances it built over at least the seven decades since WW2.
However, I don’t think anyone expected so much arrogant belligerency from the new US leader. From consolidating as much power as possible in his office, to potentially setting back decades of progress on Climate Change, dismissing officials who might disagree with his programme and praising Putin, he is single-handedly taking the USA to a much harsher, isolationist position.
President Roosevelt is credited for the saying of “speak softly but carry a big stick”. And we all generally understand that a totalitarian, constant use of the stick does not usually help us to achieve our long-term goals. I don’t think Trump and Vance are mad, but their disregard for mutual security built with strong, respectful and supportive international relations leads me to suspect that they have been compromised by both Russia and international oligarchs (Russian and homegrown technogeeks).
The world has changed and Europe feels like the 1930’s again…
… a calm before a storm…
So democratic nations in Europe need to change how they are collaborating…
… and the UK needs to rapidly change, to ensure this island nation is strong enough to stand alone again, if needed.
The USA no longer looks like a trustworthy partner for democratic nations around the world.
I suggest the following would be a good response from the UK:
- Increase spending on Defence to 15% of GDP to fund the rapid growth of domestic Defence infrastructure (equivalent to 1939). Rapidly grow domestic arms factories, incl a focus on both high-tech missiles and low-tech drones.
- Quickly develop UK domestic infrastructure to maintain Trident missiles.
- Invest in an inventory of useful ex-USA munitions.
- Increase the size and capabilities of both the Army and Air Force to levels recommended by the Chief of the Defence Staff.
… then… - Leave NATO.
- End treaties enabling NATO/USA to station military personnel in the UK, with 30-day warning to remove all their personnel from UK territories, unless a new mutual defence treaty is agreed. Such new treaties to include the quid pro quo of reasonable bilateral trade agreements.
Lee J. Russell, Author 
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